For regional forecasts, see pages 207–223.
Our study of solar activity suggests that as we enter solar cycle 24 we are at the beginning of a significant change. Over the coming years, a gradual cooling of the atmosphere will occur, offset by any warming caused by increased greenhouse gases. We expect the La Niña that developed during the winter of 2007–08 to continue into the winter of 2008–09. Most of the nation will have below-normal winter temperatures, on average. The area of heavy snowfall will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into southern New England. (This is farther south than the area of heavy snowfall in the winter of 2007–08.)
Spring will be warm in the East but cool in the West. Summer will be hot in much of the nation’s midsection but cooler than normal elsewhere. The hurricane season will be active, especially in Florida. Also watch for a hurricane to hit the central Gulf Coast and another in the northeast.
November through March temperatures will where will be below normal, on average. Rainfall be below normal, on average, with above-normal will be above normal in Florida, the coastal South-snowfall from the Texas Hill Country northeast- east, from parts of Colorado to Wisconsin, in much ward to southern New England and in the northern of California, and from Nevada to the western Intermountain Region. Expect below-normal tem- Dakotas. Rainfall elsewhere will be below normal. peratures and above-normal rainfall in the South- September and October will be cooler than east, Florida, and northern New England. Temper- atures will be above normal, on average, with normal in the East and warmer than normal in the below-normal precipitation across the north- West. Rainfall will be above normal in Florida and central tier of the nation, from the eastern slopes of near or below normal elsewhere. the Rockies to the Great Lakes and from northern How accurate was our forecast last win- California into southern Oregon. Temperatures ter? We correctly predicted above-normal and snowfall will be above normal in much of snowfall in much of New England and below-Kansas and Missouri. Elsewhere, temperatures normal snowfall in the mid-Atlantic. More ar-will be below normal, on average, with below- eas received heavy snowfalls, and the nation as normal precipitation and, in those areas that nor- a whole was 0.3 degree colder, on average, than mallyreceive snow, below-normal snowfall. we predicted because solar cycle 23 lasted April and May will be cooler than normal, on av- longer than expected. Farther west, the heavy erage, from the Intermountain and Desert South- snowfall occurred north of where we predicted west regions westward to the Pacific and warmer it. However, overall, our monthly regional than normal elsewhere. Rainfall will be above forecasts were 90 percent accurate in predict-normal in Florida and the Southeast and near or be- ing whether there would be more or less precip- low normal in other regions. itation than in the previous winter. On average, June through August will be hotter than nor- our forecast winter temperatures were within mal in Florida and from New Mexico northeast- one degree of actual temperatures. Shown be-ward through the Great Lakes. Temperatures else- low is a city selected from each region.
Region/ Winter Temp. Variations From Normal (degrees) Region/ Winter Temp. Variations From Normal (degrees)
City PREDICTED ACTUAL City PREDICTED ACTUAL
1/Burlington + 1.0 + 1. 1 9/Marquette + 2. 6 –0.3
2/Philadelphia + 1. 3 + 1. 2 10/St.Louis + 2. 2 –0.2
3/Asheville + 1. 6 + 1. 5 11/Houston + 1. 3 + 2. 6
4/Atlanta +0.2 + 1. 2 12/Amarillo + 2.0 + 1. 5
5/Jacksonville –0.6 +0.4 13/Reno +0.8 +0.9
6/Rochester + 1. 7 +0.7 14/LasVegas + 1. 3 + 1. 2
7/Pittsburgh + 1. 2 +0.3 15/Portland + 1. 4 –0.3
8/Montgomery –0.6 +0.5 16/Fresno + 1. 8 + 1. 4
2009 THE OLD FARMER’S ALMANAC 81
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